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Global GDP decline in 2020

The global economy suffered strong shocks because of the fight against coronavirus, which for Poland's GDP means the largest decline in nearly 22 years. In the first quarter of this year, the country's PBK fell from 4.8 percent in 2019 to 1.9 percent.


Until mid-March, the Polish economy operated like a well-oiled machine, suggesting stable growth until the end of the year. The outbreak of a pandemic and the closing of borders have changed this plan; in particular for Asian countries that have been fighting the virus since the beginning of the year - China has seen its first first fall in GDP since 1976.


The current scenario presented by the Ministry of Development assumes a decrease in activity of Poland for 2020, followed by rapid growth in 2021. According to economists, we are one of the few countries that record such a surprisingly low decline in activity, which can be attributed to the very nature of the economy and the course of the epidemic. Of the countries that have already presented their data, only seven have a PBK growth bigger than Poland.


On the other hand, however, the true scale of the damage caused by Covid-19 will not be visible until the second quarter of the year. According to PKO BP "Although the results for the first quarter indicate a better than forecasted result, the results of the next months will be key, as well as the speed of recovery from the crisis.



tuomas@spondeo.fi | +48 514 615 048 | Kolorowa 6 Poznan, Poland

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