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Interest rate raised second month in row; EUR/PLN and GDP predictions

1. On 3rd November the National Bank of Poland raised the interest rate to 1.25% (from 0.5% - already increased on 6th October). The head of Poland's central bank, Adam Glapinski, said that the central bank will not guide markets about future policy moves. However, he also stated that the future rate increases cannot be ruled out, and that a hike was more likely than no move in December. 2. 25.11: 1 EUR = 4.67 PLN; 1 USD = 4.16 PLN

  • In the short term, increase in the EUR/PLN exchange rate seem to be more probable than the zloty strengthening below 4.60 PLN per euro, Bank Pekao predicted.

  • Experts from Bank Millenium said that bolstering the zloty could prove to be difficult, due to the more decisive interest rate hikes taken by other central banks in the region as compared to those taken by Poland.

3. The European Commission has estimated Polish GDP growth at 4.9% in 2021 and 5.2% next year.

  • Economic growth would remain strong as a result of, among others, increasing household income, steady decline in the savings rate and dynamic growth in investment expenditures.

  • The risk factors for the Polish economy are: a higher-than forecast inflation rate and sudden rise in COVID-19 infection figures.

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